2020年1月美国最新非农就业报告,就业市场趋势提前知晓!

February 10, 2020

2020年1月美国最新非农就业报告,就业市场趋势提前知晓!

美国劳工部将于北京时间周五(2月7日)21:30公布2020年1月非农就业报告,《华尔街日报》认为应该不会有什么大的意外,但最新的数据可能预示着美国进入2020年的经济实力减弱。

非农就业报告里有几个维度的数据可以作为预测美国2020年整一年的未来就业经济趋势。

从工作时间上来衡量:


员工的平均每周工作时间连续9个月呈逐年下降趋势。与此同时,就业人数的同比增长有所放缓。

招聘网站Indeed的经济学家NickBunker称,平均工作时间的减少并不一定意味着劳动力市场的衰退即将来临。

然而,较低的平均工作时间导致了较低的周收入增长,这可能会阻碍经济增长。

去年12月,员工的平均周收入同比增长放缓至2.3%,而2019年1月为3.5%。  

从工资角度来衡量:

关注平均时薪的增长,寻找工资增长停滞的进一步证据。

上周公布的另一项薪酬指标显示,去年第四季度私营部门工人的工资同比增长3%,这是私营部门员工工资连续第四个季度增长。

工资增长停滞会抑制消费支出,而消费支出是经济增长的一个关键因素。

近几个月来,物价仅略有上涨,这限制了消费者可能因工资增长放缓而感到的压力。

从失业率下降来衡量:


2019年的12月份的失业率达到了6.7%的历史最低水平,表明随着失业率稳定在半个世纪以来的低点附近,劳动力市场将继续摆脱低迷。  

从最新的数据预示着美国进入2020年的经济实力可能会减弱,但市场仍然保持乐观预期会有所提升:

1月私营企业非农就业人数变动预期值上调至15.5万。

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2020年1月美国最新非农就业报告,就业市场趋势提前知晓!


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